In Episode 55 of Attack on Titan, Captain Levi Ackerman was responsible for an incredibly important decision. After Captain Erwin Smith’s heroic charge against the Beast Titan and Armin’s act of self-sacrifice, both are fatally wounded and on the precipice of death. While Mikasa and Eren believe Armin is the right choice for the serum-based Titan injection, Levi and Floch are unconvinced. Although the group decides Erwin should be saved in light of his experience, Levi instead selects Armin to inherit the Colossal Titan, believing the Captain has suffered enough.
While it is impossible to know the extent of the implications this has had on the rest of Attack on Titan, it is perhaps one of the series' most pivotal moments. Erwin was one of the most talented fighters, strategists and level-headed individuals on Paradis Island. His expertise would have been a vital asset in the war against Marley and the current campaign to stop Eren’s Rumbling, which leads to the question: was Armin really the best person to save?
Would Erwin Support Zeke & The Anti-Marleyan Volunteers' Plan?
Yelena and the Anti-Marleyan Volunteers, introduced in Episode 68 of Attack on Titan, inform Levi and Hange about their cooperation with Zeke Jaeger to take down the Marleyan regime and free the Eldian people through his three-point plan to protect Paradis. While Armin has very little impact on the negotiations that take place throughout this period, he does voice his concerns about Zeke’s plan to Eren and Mikasa. He argues that using the Rumbling to threaten the world would likely further enrage governments and their citizens, which could lead to the continuing cycle of hatred.
If Erwin was still alive, he likely would have shared Armin’s sentiment and fear that the Rumbling was a step too far. Erwin would have foreseen that the risks of using this operation ultimately outweighed any possible gains it could make. In the event that the person who was enacting the Rumbling lost control or went rogue, it could leave the people of Paradis vulnerable or, worse still, lead to the destruction of the entire world.
Although Captain Erwin had previously been willing to take risks in an effort to save the Eldian people, Attack on Titan always portrayed him as a careful strategist with a considerable degree of instinct. The knowledge that Zeke was in charge of establishing this plan would definitely make Erwin feel uneasy. Zeke had caused tremendous damage to the Scout Regiment and threatened the security of Paradis Island, so his sudden change of perspective would have sounded alarm bells in Erwin’s ears.
However, Yelena and her Anti-Marleyan Volunteers provided a significant amount of information about Marley’s military operation. She outlines the size and structure of Marley’s army, gives access to samples of the weapons they use, and explains why they haven’t been able to strike Paradis. Erwin would have recognized the importance of continuing to acquire this type of information and therefore might have been swayed to work with Zeke -- so long as there was an effective contingency plan for when he finally revealed his true intentions.
While measures were in place to keep Zeke in check in case of a rebellion, the precautions for the Anti-Marleyan Volunteers were less strict. This led to a considerable sum of Paradis’ military officers to become infected with Zeke’s spinal fluid, which led its army to lose control and splinter into different factions. Although Armin and many others overlooked this scenario, Erwin would have likely been better placed to foresee this occurrence, or at the very least, salvage Paradis’ military from this unfortunate scenario.
Would Erwin Have Planned A More Effective War Campaign Than Armin?
While the precise time-gap between Yelena’s arrival to Paradis and Eren’s attack on Marley is unclear, it is presumably at least several years. Having learned about Marley’s struggles with the Mid-East Allied Forces, Erwin would have surely wished for Paradis to press their advantage as soon as possible, rather than letting the opportunity slip away.
This might have resulted in an earlier campaign when Marley’s Warrior Unit was still fighting abroad. During this time, Marley would have been left completely vulnerable and at the mercy of Paradis Island’s military might. Erwin and Eren’s Titans could have easily destroyed their cities, ports and strategic centers, which would have left Marley’s Titans without the support required to effectively fight back.
Due to Erwin’s high degree of military experience, he would have recognized that Marley’s Warrior Unit was the key to their success -- and their most powerful asset. While capturing or killing the Titans might have been his overarching strategy, he too would understand that they are vulnerable when left alone.
Along with the spearheading of this operation, Erwin would almost certainly attempt to establish negotiations with other nations. Hizuru could be relied on to provide support by either agreeing to Zeke’s terms, or potentially by offering them access to Paradis Island’s Iceburst Stone mines. An alliance with the middle-east might also have been a possibility if it was negotiated during their struggles against Marley’s Titans.
If Erwin did attempt to initiate this multi-faceted approach to warfare, it may have proved highly successful and prevented Paradis from falling into chaos or even Eren’s Rumbling. If Eren had seen that Erwin’s battle strategy was effectively dealing with the threat to the island, he may have decided not to initiate this last resort.
Ultimately, Armin has not been as effective a strategist or impactful presence in Attack on Titan as many had hoped. While he is certainly talented, he doesn’t have the experience or leadership qualities necessary for the times and situations he is living in. Erwin was far more capable in battle and at making difficult decisions, whereas Armin buckles under the pressure and lacks the self-confidence required to effectively lead others to enact his tactical decisions.
Armin's close relationship with Eren has sometimes clouded his judgment, which was fully apparent when the Rumbling began. Rather than recognizing that the event was bringing an end to humanity, his first thought and comment to Mikasa was “we’ve won.” While Erwin had recognized Eren’s use as a military tool since Attack on Titan's first season, he too understood Eren's potential threat to Paradis. As Armin is much closer to Eren, Erwin’s ability to emotionally separate himself from this given situation would have likely proved invaluable throughout the fourth season.
