WARNING: The following contains spoilers for One Piece's ''Wano Country'' arc up to Chapter 1036, "Bushido is the Way of Death," by Eiichiro Oda, Stephen Paul, and Vanessa Satone, available in English from Viz Media.
Ever since One Piece's ''Wano Country'' arc opened with a curtain rising, the arc's parallels with that of a Kabuki play were obvious. Those parallels were compounded even further as the arc progressed, with multiple cultural allusions towards Kabuki scattered throughout the story, culminating in the conclusion of Chapter 924 where the curtain closed and readers were greeted with the caption ''Act One - End''.
It was this that led to a common consensus emerging among the One Piece fan base, namely, that the ''Wano Country'' arc would have five acts in total, the same structure as a Kabuki play. As the arc progressed, this notion seemed increasingly plausible, with Act Two ending in a way that made it seem like readers were not headed for the final act, but instead the arc's tumultuous middle chapters before the final confrontation with the arc's big bad, Kaido. At present, however, the curtain has yet to fall on Act Three, and it seems the arc is hurtling towards its climax with no act break in sight.
Currently, all of Kaido's subordinates have been defeated by the heroes, leaving him as the last major Beast Pirate standing in the conflict. The most recent chapter, Chapter 1036, ended with Luffy and Kaido in the throes of their seemingly climactic showdown, with the Straw Hat Captain trading equal blows with the King of the Beasts. In any other arc, such a scene would signify the approaching end of the conflict, leaving many to believe that ''Wano'' will end at three acts after all.
So what suggests there might be more left? Among fans, it's the notion that the raid has been going a little too well for the Alliance. ''Wano'' owes as much to heist fiction as it does to Kabuki theater, with the Alliance's plan to raid Onigashima mirroring that of many great fictional capers. A core tenet of heist fiction is the trope that when the protagonists lay out all of the details of a heist during the planning stages, something will go wrong during the execution.
It's this fact that makes it incredibly suspicious how well things have gone for the Alliance. Other than Kanjuro revealing himself to be a traitor right at the beginning of the raid, their plans haven't gone awry in any significant way. Any complications have been entirely beneficial to the Alliance, whether it's Denjiro, Yamato, and X-Drake switching sides, the unexpected arrivals of Jimbei, Marco, and Izo, Queen's stunt with the Ice Oni virus causing his subordinates to turn against him or the Big Mom Pirates being taken out of the picture early. Everything that could go right for the heroes has done so.
It's a fact lampshaded by Hyogoro the Flower, who explicitly stated in Chapter 989 once the raid is underway that he can't see any way of the Alliance losing. It's an ominous line to put in the mouth of one of the arc's heroes, a statement of unwavering faith that seems set up to be challenged later in the arc. If not by the Alliance's loss, then at least by a major obstacle offsetting their victory. Yet nothing of the sort has manifested yet; not even nearly dying at the hands of Queen's Ice Oni virus shakes Hyogoro's faith in the Alliance's broader success.
In Kabuki plays, the end of the third act is most often where a great tragedy takes place, leaving acts four and five to pick up the pieces. As the most popular theory has been that ''Wano'' would be five acts, the notion of a third-act tragedy has long been a source of speculation among the One Piece fan base.
The most common theory for a potential third-act tragedy is the idea the raid on Onigashima would fail, popularized by One Piece YouTuber Mr. Morj. Morj cited previous One Piece arcs and how the Straw Hats' initial attempts to defeat the villains always end in failure, before picking themselves back up and trying again later in the arc. Assuming the raid succeeded, ''Wano'' would be a major exception to this long-standing series rule. This fact, combined with how suspiciously well the raid has gone, is why many fans believe the Alliance may still lose.
Throughout ''Wano'' Oda has also made constant allusions to jo-ha-kyū, a common motif in Japanese art whereby actions start slowly (jo), pick up speed (ha), and then end swiftly (kyū). Jo-ha-kyū can also be used for story structure for three-act stories, but it is most predominantly found as the structure for Kabuki plays. The first act encompasses "jo", the second, third and fourth encompass "ha", and the fifth encompasses "kyū".
If the arc only ends up being three acts, however, then Act Three feels particularly mismatched for the "kyū" portion of the story. Standing at 78 chapters, Act Three is by far the longest in the arc so far -- more than Acts One and Two combined. "Kyū" is defined by brevity carried by the momentum of "ha", but Act Three's slow pace compared to Act Two runs counter to this edict, implying that the "kyū" portion of the story is yet to come.
It's possible that Oda originally planned for the arc to follow the structure of a Kabuki play, third-act tragedy included, only to abandon the idea for any number of reasons. This seems unlikely, however as even if his initial plans were scrapped, the act offers plenty of tragic moments to slot an act break after. Whether it's the tragic end of the Oden flashback, the Scabbards' defeat at the hands of Kaido, Ashura Doji's apparent death, Luffy's second defeat against Kaido, or the near-fatal stabbings of Kiku and Kin'emon, there is a multitude of dour scenes where a curtain could have fallen.
So if a tragedy is yet to come, then what could it be, and what story could there be to tell after? It's possible the raid against Kaido will fail after all, but it's also possible that another antagonist might emerge from the shadows to take center stage in Acts Four and Five. Both the Big Mom Pirates and Cipher Pol Zero pose credible threats equal to the Beast Pirates, and either faction would probably be eager to take advantage of the power vacuum should the Alliance defeat Kaido.
''Wano'' has a lot of loose plot threads left to tie up that would benefit from two additional acts, but there's also a lot going against the idea. Firstly is Oda's declaration at Jump Festa that he hoped to conclude the arc this year. It's possible the mangaka could fit two acts into the span of a year, but it's incredibly doubtful, especially with how long Act Three has gone run already.
There's also his broader aim to conclude the series by 2025. Given how much ground One Piece has left to cover after the ''Wano Country'' arc, Oda is likely eager to want to wrap the storyline up as soon as possible, something another two acts would only get in the way of.
At 128 chapters and counting, the ''Wano Country'' arc is by far the longest in the series' history. It's a testament to its density that despite that length, there's still plenty of room for even more story to be told. Whether the arc is in its final chapters or there's two acts' worth of additional room to cover remains to be seen, but either way, 2022 promises to be a momentous year both for ''Wano'' and for One Piece as a whole.
